Help & FAQ
A guide to reading SWF predictions, understanding risk tiers, and getting the most out of the dashboard.
Quick Tour
The SWF dashboard is organized into five areas. Hover, scroll, or click on any element to interact with it.
HMI Magnetogram
Real-time image of the Sun's photospheric magnetic field…
Orbit Map
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Predictions Table
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Probability History
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Status & Refresh
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Reading Predictions
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What the columns mean
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Time and window conventions
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The "<24H" warning badge
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Risk Tiers Explained
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| Tier | Probability | × Climatology | What it means & what to do |
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| LOW | < 7.9 % | < 2.4 × | … |
| MEDIUM | 7.9 % – 15 % | 2.4 × – 4.5 × | … |
| HIGH | 15 % – 30 % | 4.5 × – 9.1 × | … |
| CRITICAL | ≥ 30 % | ≥ 9.1 × | … |
Why four tiers, not three?
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Understanding the Visuals
HMI Magnetogram
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Probability History Chart
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Orbit Map
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Science Background
What is a solar flare?
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What is SHARP?
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Active regions, NOAA numbers, and HARPs
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Solar Cycles 24 and 25
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Frequently Asked Questions
How often does the dashboard update?
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What if the displayed probability is very high — should I worry?
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Why do I see "HARP 11250" instead of "AR 13981"?
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What does the yellow ⚠ <24H badge mean?
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What is the difference between TSS and HSS2 — and which should I trust?
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Why is the probability for some regions exactly 0 %?
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Can I use this for operational decisions?
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How accurate is SWF compared to existing systems?
On the held-out test set, SWF achieves:
- TSS = 0.732
- HSS2 = 0.298
- ROC-AUC = 0.945
- PR-AUC = 0.376
- BSS = +0.241 (after isotonic calibration)
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The data status shows "outdated" — what does that mean?
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- JSOC data delivery is delayed…
- Our data-fetching script encountered a temporary error
- The server is undergoing maintenance
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Can I access the predictions programmatically (via an API)?
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Does SWF work on mobile devices?
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How can I cite SWF in my research?
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Troubleshooting
The page is blank or stuck on "Loading"
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The probability history chart is empty
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Still Need Help?
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