About SWF

Solar Wind & Intense Flare Tracking — a 24-hour ≥ M-class flare forecasting system built on SDO/HMI SHARP data, covering Solar Cycles 24 and 25 (2010 – 2025).

Project Overview

Solar flares release intense radiation that can disrupt satellite operations, communication networks, and ground-based power grids — posing one of the most significant threats in space weather.

SWF is an operational solar flare forecasting system…

M- and X-class flares can trigger ionospheric disturbances…

"We aim to translate cutting-edge solar magnetogram research into an operational forecast tool that anyone — from scientists to satellite operators — can use in real time."

Methodology

1. Data Preparation

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2. Sample Selection Strategy

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3. Forecast Models

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4. Probability Calibration

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5. Inference Pipeline

Input → Pre-processing → Ensemble Model → Calibration → Risk Tier Output

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Model Performance — Transformer (held-out test set)

TSS
0.73
True Skill Statistic
HSS2
0.30
Heidke Skill Score
ROC-AUC
0.94
Receiver Operating Char.
PR-AUC
0.38
Precision-Recall AUC
BSS
+0.24
Brier Skill Score (calibrated)

Model Performance — LightGBM (held-out test set)

TSS
0.70
True Skill Statistic
HSS2
0.34
Heidke Skill Score
ROC-AUC
—
Receiver Operating Char.
PR-AUC
0.42
Precision-Recall AUC
BSS
+0.25
Brier Skill Score (calibrated)

* Full methodology, ablation studies, and reliability diagrams are documented in the Bulletins page.

Operational System

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Transformer — Risk Tiers

Tier Calibrated Probability Multiple of Climatology Operational Meaning
LOW < 7.9 % < 2.4 × Background level; no action required
MEDIUM 7.9 % – 15 % 2.4 × – 4.5 × Operating threshold; routine monitoring
HIGH 15 % – 30 % 4.5 × – 9.1 × Elevated risk; alert downstream users
CRITICAL ≥ 30 % ≥ 9.1 × Imminent M/X event likely; mitigation advised

LightGBM — Risk Tiers

Tier Calibrated Probability Multiple of Climatology Operational Meaning
LOW < 4.69 % < 1.4 × Background level; no action required
MEDIUM 4.69 % – 9.38 % 1.4 × – 2.8 × Operating threshold; routine monitoring
HIGH 9.38 % – 18.76 % 2.8 × – 5.7 × Elevated risk; alert downstream users
CRITICAL ≥ 18.76 % ≥ 5.7 × Imminent M/X event likely; mitigation advised

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Data Sources

Team

SWF Team Group Photo
SWF Project Team, SKL-LPS, MUST
Haolin Zheng
Lead Developer
M.Sc. Candidate
State Key Laboratory of Lunar
and Planetary Sciences, MUST
Junshen Jiang
Lead Developer
M.Sc. Candidate
State Key Laboratory of Lunar
and Planetary Sciences, MUST

Acknowledgements

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Contact

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